northern ireland census 2021 predictions

Renowned Irish historian and author Tim Pat Coogan has urged Irish-American politicians to scrutinize the handling of the 2021 Northern Irish census, claiming that Catholic numbers have been under-reported for decades due to "bogus statistics". Since 2001, the analysis of the religion question codes all responses into four categories: Catholic (1) adds up Roman Catholic with the written answers Catholic Apostolic Church, Ukrainian Catholic, Greek Catholic, and Catholic. Belonging to a religion in Great Britain and Ireland. Read More NISRA acknowledges that the categorisation of some of the smaller religions is open to interpretation. Sign up to IrishCentral's newsletter to stay up-to-date with everything Irish! People belonging to or brought up in no religion, are those who answered None to both the main and the additional question. Northern Ireland's population has risen to almost 2m people, according to the results of the 2021 census. These two religious denominations are also used as proxy for British unionist and Irish nationalist identities. the census, the first since Brexit,. Cover image showing relative populations between Protestants (red) and Catholics (blue); source: Northern Ireland Peace Monitoring Report, Number Five, October 2018. The total of 1.9 million is the highest figure recorded since Northern Ireland was established in 1921. Copyright 2022 Irish Studio LLC All rights reserved. Just 13% said they would give their first preference to the DUP if an election were held tomorrow, down 3 points on May. Together they represented 35.8% (19.03%, 13.74%, and 3% respectively) of the population in 2011. Well never share you email address. The Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) today released further results from Census 2021, which was held on 21 March 2021. "Of course, there will be an increase in the Catholic population proportionately but birthrates have declined in recent years so growth has slowed.". The official census day was 21 March 2021 A census occurs every 10 years and participation is compulsory. For the England and Wales census, there are no subcategories of the Christian response option.Religion brought up in, in Northern Ireland. Headline population statistics by age and sex, the number of households with usual residents, and communal establishment population. The year 2011 was the first time the Protestant population was not the majority in the history of the region, according to the fifth Northern Ireland Peace Monitoring Report, published in October 2018. In Scotland, the brought up in question was asked in the 2001 census, in addition to a belonging to question. Catholics, Protestants, and others in Great Britain and Ireland. A similar additional question is not asked in England and Wales, nor in Ireland. The demographers reallocated the "not stated" replies as Catholics in the 1991 census if there was "both a knowledge of the Irish language and above average fertility". Likewise, 41.6% of people who stated they belonged to no religion stated a different response to what they were brought up in. Northern Ireland's Parliament Buildings, often referred to as Stormont because of its location in the Stormont Estate area of Belfast. In England and Wales, there is one category: Christians (including Church of England, Catholic, Protestant and all other Christian denominations). It's a long road to a United Ireland, America hasnt gone away on Irish unity despite some Irish efforts, This delightful Irish Teddy collection will put a smile on your face, Rishi Sunak likely to delay Northern Ireland Protocol decision. We use some essential cookies to make this website work. Includes Brexit, the Irish border, passports, Good Friday Agreement. Given Tue May 24 2022 - 12:37. You can change your cookie settings at any time. This looks set to continue as the 'baby boom' generation of the 1950s and 1960s reach retirement age. A census is being conducted in Northern Ireland only a hundred years after the UK government split the island of Ireland in half, keeping the northern part and creating an independent Irish Republic in the south. All other stated religions, such as Muslim or Hindu, were included into the category Other Religions and Philosophies (3). Projected growth varies substantially between the four countries of the UK: England's population is projected to grow by 5.0% over this period; for Northern Ireland, the figure is 3.7%; while. Religion brought up in, in Great Britain and Ireland. Consequently, the responses were coded independently of the belonging to question. UK long range weather forecast. This means the four coded categories got adjusted into: In the 2011 Census, 123,162 persons who responded to the original religion belonging question with No religion or not stated were added to the new Belonging to or brought up in Protestant and Other Christian denominations (including Christian related) category, and 79,352 such persons to the Belonging to or brought up Catholic category. So the results of Census 2021 in Northern Ireland have now been released. Check benefits and financial support you can get, Limits on energy prices: Energy Price Guarantee, Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency, Census 2021: population and household estimates for Northern Ireland. An increase of 5.1% since the 2011 Census. To help us improve GOV.UK, wed like to know more about your visit today. By Emet Dennis / May 25, 2021 . At the last census, in 2011, the population was 1,810,900, an increase of 7% on the previous census. He also said that next year's assembly elections could return a Sinn Fin First Minister for the first time in the history of Northern Ireland. This article seeks to explain the data collection by the Northern Ireland Statistics Research Agency and some of their methods in calculating Protestants and Catholics. The first phase of main statistics results from Census 2021 are now available. Northern Ireland's population has risen to a record high of more than 1.9 million, the latest census has revealed. In Northern Ireland, much data are reduced to communal categories of Protestant and Catholic, for the purposes of monitoring the delivery of public services and compliance with discrimination legislation. A spokesperson for the Department of Finance said a "working timetable" for the census results would be published at the end of this month, providing a schedule for when key statistics will be released throughout the year. It also showed an ageing Protestant community too, with only those over 60 having a significant majority, while the number of Catholic schoolchildren was notably greater than their Protestant counterparts. Eight-out-of-10 people took the online option. It is a system developed by Statistics Canada, based on the Nearest-neighbour Imputation Methodology. This traditional Irish thatched cottage is on the market for just $79k, Two Irish names among the most rare baby names in the United States, Irish American first name voted scientifically most beautiful, Two Irish American women make history in the US midterm elections, Michael Flynn is embracing his "Irish Catholic" heritage, IrishCentral reader's share their wonderful memories of Ireland at Christmas, Johnny Depp pens foreword to Pogues frontman Shane MacGowans new book, Birth of the Border: the effect of the Partition of Ireland. For the first time, people were urged to complete the survey online if they could, rather than on paper. Coogan questioned the results of previous censuses and pointed to efforts by two Dublin demographers in 1991 to categorize people whose religion was "not stated" as Catholics or Protestants in the 1991 Northern Ireland census. "Dramatic change may come as soon as next year's assembly elections, which could conceivably see a Sinn Fin First Minister returned to Stormont," he said. The short, tumultuous reign of Edwin Poots resulted in his own net approval rating of -52%, with just16% thinking he was doing a good job according to the previous poll. In addition to a religion belonging question, Northern Ireland is unique in the British Isles for asking a further religious background question. The latest census was published on Thursday. He said that the coming census could shatter illusions that Protestants still retain a significant majority in Northern Ireland and he urged Irish-American politicians to ensure that the census is conducted correctly. Those who indicated they were Atheist, Jedi Knight, and others were included in the No religion or not stated (4) category, along with people who gave no response to the question. Includes child-care, primary, secondary and tertiary education. Northern Ireland 2021 Census Result: 100 years since Partition, Catholics overtake Protestants as the largest religious group in NI Catholic: 42.3% (+1.5) Protestant: 37.3% (-4.3) Other: 1.7% (+0.9) No Religion: 19.0% (+2.1) Changes with 2011 Wed like to set additional cookies to understand how you use GOV.UK, remember your settings and improve government services. A prediction for the upcoming census is that there will likely continue to be an increase is secularism as that is a trend in multiple countries and not just Northern Ireland. The new question is only meant for those who stated they belonged to no religion and those who did not answer the belonging to question. Table: All respondents, religion belonging, by country, 2011 Census: Table: Respondents belonging to Christian religion, denomination by country, 2011 Census: (Figures for England & Wales are not applicable; religion denomination not asked. The percentage of the population that is considered Protestant depends on the definition being used. Read about our approach to external linking. Northern Ireland's 2021 census has shown that for the first time in 101 years of history of the region, 45.7% of the population are Catholic while 43.5% are Protestant. Here the experiences of Northern Ireland seem to have little to offer to the debate. In the UK, the Canadian Census Edit and Imputation System is used for imputation. [10] The last census, in 2011, showed that the Protestant population had declined to 48 . Fun with a capital F for dancing queens and super troupers, Patricia Mac Bride: A lot of grown-up politics needed on protocol, Newton Emerson: Raising student fees is the only practical solution. Home / Communal counting: The Northern Ireland census, > Communal counting: The Northern Ireland census, 6 March 2019 Read about our approach to external linking. The total population is 1,903,100, with slightly more females than males. NISRA notes this can be partly explained by an increase in the proportion of people who either had no religion or no stated religion (from 14 per cent to 17 per cent) and the more than doubling of the prevalence rate for Other religions (from 0.3 per cent to 0.8 per cent). THE first results of the 2021 census are expected to emerge in March, however, the much-anticipated data showing the regional religious breakdown may not be published for a further six months. Long-term demographic trends suggest Census 2021 could be the first in the history of the region to record more Catholics than Protestants within the population. However, commentator and historian Brian Feeney disagrees, saying it would "require a huge jump" for the Catholic population to break the 50 per cent barrier in a survey he characterised as "crude" in its measurement. Accordingly, and unlike other questions, the percentage of the population who did not state a religion is given in the results. Including non-religious people and non-respondents who were brought up in Protestant or other Christian denominations, less than half of the population has been Protestant since 2011. The question will be similar to that asked in the 1991 Census, but in addition, respondents who indicate no religion will be asked to record the religion in which they were brought up (if any). These nearest neighbours serve as donors for missing answers.Imputation is applied to the additional question (religion brought up in), meaning the percentage of non-respondents disappears in the adjusted results. Among the questions posed is one asking to what religion, religious denomination or body you belong. Protestants are just one of several minorities in Northern Ireland. Had nationalists kept their mouths shut and said "wait and see", the census results showing Protestants at 53 per cent and Catholics at 44 per cent would have been mildly worrying for the former and mildly disappointing for the latter. The latest figures show that the current population of Northern Ireland has increased by 5% since the last census in 2011. In 2018, an academic specialising in monitoring social trends said it was likely that Catholics would outnumber Protestants by 2021. Mr Feeney said the census's "crude measurement" failed to recognise the middle ground, on which he believes a vote for Irish unity would hinge. Keeping your data safe. It differed from the Northern Ireland census in that the "brought up in" question had to be answered by everyone (i.e. It will take only 2 minutes to fill in. This produces data that other statutory agencies find useful. "Univariate census 2021 statistics for Northern Ireland on ethnicity, country of birth, passports held, religion, religion or religion brought up in, national identity, language, and household size will be published at 9.30 am on 22 September 2022. . Census reminders sent to 10% of people in NI, Almost a million people respond to NI census form, Public in NI asked to complete 2021 census online, Ukraine cautious over Russian withdrawal from key city, US estimates 200,000 casualties in Ukraine war, Biden cheers better-than-expected midterms results, Iranian protesters look to outside world for help, Muna got a fresh start, thanks to Phoebe Bridgers, The shops that connect people with their home countries, God of War: How to improve a 'masterpiece', 'I had to destroy a truck-load of beer' Video'I had to destroy a truck-load of beer', Trepidation as Russians prepare Kherson pullout. Find out more about what we do with your data. What does this information on Religion and Religion Brought up in contain, and was 2011 really the first time the majority of the population of Northern Ireland was not Protestant? Census Office, situated within the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA), will lead on the development and implementation of all elements of the 2021 Census. The Census Act (Northern Ireland) 1969 indicates that those who do not complete the question about religion shall not be subject to any penalty for refusing to do so. "The number of people aged 65 or more rose by more than 60,000 to nearly one third of a million people - a near 25% increase on 2011. Mr Feeney said that while he expected the official statistics to show continued growth in the Catholic population, numbers had not increased at a rate that would see them overtake Protestants. In the last census, held in 2011, 45.1% of the population specified that they were Catholic or brought up Catholic, and 48.4% were from a Protestant or other Christian background. The official census website outlines what happens with the information gathered. Long-term demographic trends suggest Census 2021 could be the first in the history of the region to record more Catholics than Protestants within the population. Normally, missing responses are imputed using standard statistical procedures. 12 January 2022. "Even if it does not, population growth will continue on the nationalist side whether loyalists, London, or sections of decision-taking Dublin like it or not.". Video: Northern Ireland Census 2021 (Belfast Live) Northern Ireland Census 2021. Well never spam you. In Northern Ireland, Protestants in favor of the monarchy had been in the majority for centuries. These proposals would normally have been considered and approved by the Minister of Finance, the Northern Ireland Executive and the Northern Ireland Assembly. Includes paramilitaries, peace lines, and life after the Troubles. It differed from the Northern Ireland census in that the brought up in question had to be answered by everyone (i.e. However, the 2001 census returned a figure in the mid-40s, while the "not stated" category rose from 12 to 17 percent and was accompanied by a note saying that "these were thought to be mainly Protestants". Thus the decennial exercise of the Northern Ireland population census has an added sensitivity and importance. FactCheckNI is Northern Irelands first and only dedicated independent fact-checking service and averified signatoryto the International Fact-Checking NetworksCode of Principles. The answers to this question are variables that classify a person by the Religion they consider themselves to belong to, or if the person does not belong to a religion, they could select no religion. The population has increased by more than 90,000 in a . He also speculated that as in 2012, the "juicy bits" of data would not be released until later in the year. The given answers in Ireland contained four Christian options: Roman Catholic, Church of Ireland, Presbyterian, and Orthodox. The most indicated other religions were Baptist (1% of total population) and Christian (0.8%) (see Religion Full Detail: QS218NI). The census data also showed that the population continued to age. March 21 last year was Census Day and around 80,000 households took time. TWEET. For some, a Protestant-majority population provides assurance of continuation of the Union with Great Britain; for others, a Catholic-majority population means a call for a referendum for a united Ireland. Laurence CooleyMarch 15, 2021Politics. 2 February - GCSE, AS and A Level qualifications will be calculated by schools in 2021, it is confirmed. The latest census day was Sunday 21 March 2021. Responses to the additional question are coded into the same four categories as ascribed above. not exclusively by non-respondents or non-religious people). You can learn more aboutabout FactCheckNI, ourpersonnel, what our articleverdictsmean, and how tosubmit a claim. The 2011 Census recorded 48%. News stories, speeches, letters and notices, Reports, analysis and official statistics, Data, Freedom of Information releases and corporate reports. The three main Protestant churches have represented less than 50% of the population since 1981, when 45.9% of the population responded that it belonged to one of these three Christian denominations. CLAIM: There have been several recent claims that, since it was first established a year and a half after the Good Friday Agreement, Northern Irelands devolved institutions have not been functioning for 40% of the time. ), Catholics, Protestants, and others in Northern Ireland. The remaining. The censuses were administered by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in England and Wales, by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) in Northern Ireland, and by the National Records of Scotland in Scotland. 9.7% of people who in 2001 belonged to a Christian religion did not state the same religion for where they were brought up in . The total of 1.9 million is the highest figure recorded since Northern Ireland. The 2011 census, the findings of which were published the following year, showed that the Protestant population had declined to 48 per cent and the Catholic minority had risen to 45 per cent. The statistics released . However. In fact, if we remind ourselves of the poll's margin of error of 2.3 percentage points, the estimated range of support for staying in the UK is between 44.5% and 49.1%, while the estimated range of support for a united Ireland is between 42.3% and 44.6%. Get the day's headlines delivered directly to your inbox, Woman (27) charged following Portstewart assault, 'What does a tosh look like?' "Everybody's talking about the possibility of a Catholic majority but I don't think it's likely this time around, as it would require a huge jump from what was recorded in 2011," he said. Details about the population's religious make-up will be published in the autumn. The results of the 2011 census indicated that 45.1% of the population were Catholic. In a report by Central Statistics Office, which compares the 2011 census results of Ireland and Northern Ireland, the category Protestant and Other Christian was also created for Ireland; 6.3% of the Irish population belonged to that category. Includes crime statistics, cultural and religious matters. Belonging to a religion in Northern Ireland. Consequently, the responses were coded independently of the "belonging to" question. The question, which allowed the respondent to record multiple national identities, is presented in Figures 1 (online) . 1 February - Health Minister Robin Swann confirms that as of Sunday 31 January, 246,421 COVID vaccinations had been given in Northern Ireland. Politicians have been reacting to census figures which show there are more people from a Catholic background in Northern Ireland than Protestant for . Dont include personal or financial information like your National Insurance number or credit card details. Census 2021 included a question on national identity. The population of Northern Ireland on census day, 21 March 2021, was 1,903,175. Tables are provided for Northern Ireland and the 11 Local Government Districts. Speculation about the 'sectarian headcount' has regularly accompanied these decennial events, but given the increased prominence of debates about a potential border poll in the aftermath of Brexit and a lack of clarity . (The 1981 Census, however, was conducted in difficult circumstances, and a campaign of non-cooperation was held in some areas which, according to NISRA, resulted in a lower than expected figure for those stating Catholic and a higher than expected figure for Not stated). Dont worry we wont send you spam or share your email address with anyone. This coincided with some reflections on a call for papers focusing on the relationship between the protection of minority rights and conflict resolution and prevention. "The fact is that there are a large number of Catholics who would never vote for a unionist party but also would not vote for a united Ireland," he said. Well only send you the good stuff. Yes, both the Council of In 2011, the brought up in question was dropped from the Scotland Census, due to limited user demand. However, their findings were not welcome in "decision-taking Dublin" and that former Taoiseach Dr. Garret FitzGerald was especially displeased. Related: Irish Politics, Northern Ireland, US Politics. Long-term demographic trends suggest Census 2021 could be the . The Census held on 21 March 2021, Northern Ireland's centenary year, highlighted a population of 1,903,175 - the highest ever but the data also shows that the population continues to age. Coogan said that their analysis "meant that the overall population of Catholics, rose from the late 30s to over 40 percent". We also use cookies set by other sites to help us deliver content from their services. 4.. The 2021 census will be released on May 24 th. The data, published on Thursday, focuses on main language, passports and national identity, which all points to an increasingly diverse population. It has been speculated that the 10-yearly statistics could see Catholics outnumber their Protestant counterparts for the first time. CLAIM: Irish Times columnist Stephen Collins claimed that the 2006 St Andrews Agreement modified the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement in such a way that it has effectively handed both the DUP and Sinn Fin veto powers over the formation of an Executive at Stormont.

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